Blue sky thinking

Geoengineers are would-be deities who dream of mastering the heavens. But are humans the ones who are out of control?

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Chinese meteorological department workers prepare to fire shells to seed clouds in Yongchuan county, Chongqing, China, September 2009. Photo by ImageChina/Corbis

Chinese meteorological department workers prepare to fire shells to seed clouds in Yongchuan county, Chongqing, China, September 2009. Photo by ImageChina/Corbis

Adam Corner is a research associate in psychology at Cardiff University. His latest book is Promoting Sustainable Behaviour: A Practical Guide to What Works (2012).

At a small conference in Germany last May, I found myself chuckling at the inability of the meeting organisers to control the room’s electronic blinds. It’s always fun when automated technology gets the better of its human masters, but this particular malfunction had a surreal pertinence. Here was a room full of geoengineering experts, debating technologies to control the climate, all the while failing to keep the early summer sun’s rays away from their PowerPoint presentations. As the blinds clicked and whirred in the background, opening and closing at will, I asked myself: are we really ready to take control of the global thermostat?

Geoengineering, the idea of using large-scale technologies to manipulate the Earth’s temperature in response to climate change, sounds like the premise of a science fiction novel. Nevertheless, it is migrating to the infinitely more unsettling realm of science policy. The notion of a direct intervention in the climate system — by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or reflecting a small amount of sunlight back out into space — is slowly gaining currency as a ‘Plan B’. The political subtext for all this is the desperation that now permeates behind-the-scenes discourse about climate change. Despite decades of rhetoric about saving the planet, and determined but mostly ineffectual campaigns from civil society, global emissions of carbon dioxide continue to rise.

Officially, climate policy is all about energy efficiency, renewables and nuclear power. Officially, the target of keeping global temperatures within two degrees of the pre-industrial revolution average is still in our sights. But the voices whispering that we might have left it too late are no longer automatically dismissed as heretical. Wouldn’t it be better, they ask, to have at least considered some other options — in case things get really bad?

This is the context in which various scary, implausible or simply bizarre proposals are being put on the table. They range from the relatively mundane (the planting of forests on a grand scale), to the crazy but conceivable (a carbon dioxide removal industry, to capture our emissions and bury them underground), to the barely believable (injecting millions of tiny reflective particles into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight). In fact, the group of technologies awkwardly yoked together under the label ‘geoengineering’ have very little in common beyond their stated purpose: to keep the dangerous effects of climate change at bay.

Monkeying around with the Earth’s systems at a planetary scale obviously presents a number of unknown — and perhaps unknowable — dangers. How might other ecosystems be affected if we start injecting reflective particles into space? What would happen if the carbon dioxide we stored underground were to escape? What if the cure of engineering the climate is worse than the disease? But I think that it is too soon to get worked up about the risks posed by any individual technology. The vast majority of geoengineering ideas will never get off the drawing board. Right now, we should be asking more fundamental questions.

Here is a project that elevates engineers and their political masters to the status of benevolent deities

Geoengineering differs from other approaches to tackling climate change not in the technologies it seeks to deploy but in the assumptions it makes about how we relate to the natural world. Its essence is the idea that it is feasible to control the Earth’s climate. It is a philosophy, then — a philosophy that characterises the problem of climate change as something ‘solvable’ by engineering, rather than a social phenomenon emerging from politics and culture.

Thinking about it in this way — as a set of assumptions about how to tackle climate change rather than a set of technologies — makes it easier to see why the ethical issues embedded in the concept are trickier than any scientific disputes about the side effects of this or that piece of machinery. Here is a project that elevates engineers and their political masters to the status of benevolent deities; a project that requires us to manage a suite of world-shaping technologies over the long haul. Do we have either the desire or the capacity to do that? As the late American climate scientist Stephen Schneider wrote in 2008: ‘Just imagine if we needed to do all this in 1900 and then the rest of 20th-century history unfolded as it actually did!’ In other words, world history is volatile enough even without the question of how to manage the global climate.

Let’s think about how disputes might play out. What if I, as the ruler of a nation beginning to feel the adverse effects of climate change, unilaterally decided to start reflecting sunlight back into space? What if this had the effect of altering the rainfall in your nation? It is not difficult to see how quickly the Cold War logic of imagined threats and counter-threats would creep in to the geopolitics of climate management. The lessons of a film such as Dr Strangelove, or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (1964) could well apply to meteorology as much as they do to nuclear physics.

Even short of provoking military conflict, it is not obvious whose consent should be sought before a government, or even a wealthy individual, decides to embark on ‘Experiment Earth’. What’s more, if you believe, as I do, that the story of climate change is at root one of injustice, it’s even less clear how a high-tech geoengineering industry — inevitably directed by a consortium of wealthy nations — would do anything but exacerbate the division between those who are protected from climate change and those who must suffer its consequences.

These political questions obscure a still deeper issue. If geoengineering involves remaking the global climate, might it also remake the connection between humans and nature? We have always existed in a strange kind of equilibrium with the natural world (whatever that is). Think of urban green spaces: ‘nature’ might be found in them, but we probably wouldn’t call the spaces themselves natural. On the other hand, plenty of human innovations have made their way into our idea of the ‘natural order’. The classic example is smallholder agriculture: what was once (albeit many thousands of years ago) considered the height of mastery over the elements is now an archetypal image of humans living in harmony with their environment. The lines between nature and artifice have always been blurred. They only grow more so as our grand technological narratives advance — as we unlock the code to our own genetic identity or build life from the ‘bottom up’ using nanoscale components.

We can admit all of this and still insist that there are deep-rooted, widely shared intuitions about which elements of the world can be called ‘natural’. It is also clear that a broad range of people share a sense that certain aspects of the natural world lie — or should lie — beyond human influence. When scientists are accused of ‘playing God’, this criticism is as likely to come from an atheist as a religious person. If building life from the bottom up seems, to many, like overstepping the mark, this is not necessarily a theistic judgement. New technologies demand self-reflection about who we are and where we fit into the world. Geoengineering is only the latest idea to prompt that kind of soul-searching. Yet it is different from its predecessors in one important regard: its scope.

Many scientists now believe that the industrial revolution marked the beginning of a new era defined by human dominance over the Earth’s ecosystems — the ‘anthropocene’. More than 20 years ago, the American environmentalist Bill McKibben wrote a book called The End of Nature (1989). He made a devastatingly simple argument: that the natural world could no longer be considered independent from human influence. Choices made by humans were shaping the fundamental nature of the planet itself, not just tinkering around the edges. As McKibben puts it:
By the end of nature I do not mean the end of the world. The rain will still fall and the sun shine, though differently than before. When I say ‘nature’ I mean a certain set of human ideas about the world and our place in it.

Geoengineering represents a very different set of ideas about the world and our place in it. A glance at the popular metaphors beginning to frame the debate leaves little doubt about just what kind of ideas they are. One popular rhetorical approach, for example, is to describe the planet as a patient, in need of treatment. It’s an image that Sir Paul Nurse, the President of the Royal Society, explored in a letter to The Guardian in September 2011:
Geoengineering research can be considered analogous to pharmaceutical research. One would not take a medicine that had not been rigorously tested to make sure that it worked and was safe. But, if there was a risk of disease, one would research possible treatments and, once the effects were established, one would take the medicine if needed and appropriate.

Our ‘sick planet’ is presented as in need of medicine, something that only we, the clever humans, can dispense. Through careful, responsible research, we can determine a cure — never mind the fact that our own consumption is the proximal cause of the disease.

Earlier in his letter, Nurse suggests (plausibly) that there might come a time when we are forced to consider geoengineering. But the claim that we might need geoengineering because we simply can’t rein in our consumption implies a stark and somewhat disturbing truth: the natural world is widely considered more malleable than our own wishes and desires. We even have a name to capture this self-serving inflexibility: human nature.

Long before climate change was even a concept, technocrats, entrepreneurs and ‘rainmakers’ were itching to get their hands on the levers that controlled the heavens

Of course, there is a difference between saying that people can’t change their ways and the argument that we shouldn’t have to. In the US, right-wing climate change denial organisations such as the Heartland Institute have thrown their weight behind geoengineering as a ‘cost-effective’ solution to climate change, flipping neatly from denying that the problem exists to advocating a solution to it. As is often the case with climate change scepticism, rejection of the science appears to be a proxy for dislike of the policy implications. For those who prefer geoengineering to the ‘social engineering’ of behaviour change, controlling the climate seems like a better deal than being controlled themselves.

Then again, the urge to control the weather runs deeply in human societies, as the American historian of science James Roger Fleming shows in his fascinating book Fixing the Sky: The Chequered History of Weather and Climate Control (2010). Long before climate change was even a concept, technocrats, entrepreneurs and ‘rainmakers’ were itching to get their hands on the levers that controlled the heavens. Indeed, Fleming’s analysis of medieval ‘hail archers’, hurricane canons and, more recently, cloud seeding, shows how illusory previous attempts to dominate nature have been, even on a small scale. Rarely has the enthusiasm for weather-engineering been matched by measurable, positive outcomes. There is an important lesson here for would-be geoengineers: if we can’t even manipulate the local weather successfully, what hope for controlling the global climate?

But do geoengineers really want to seize the reins of the world’s atmosphere, or are they just regular guys who want to help combat climate change? Most of them, after all, claim that their interest in geoengineering is driven by necessity. And it is true that few would attempt such an outlandish enterprise unless all the other options had been exhausted.

The problem is that all the other options have not been exhausted: people are simply exhausted from trying. So perhaps, despite the increasingly popular story that geoengineering is a necessary Plan B, the whole project only really makes sense as a kind of utopian scheme, pursued for its own sake. A reasonable question to ask in that case would be: ‘Whose utopia?’

There is in fact a small group of individuals — dubbed the ‘geoclique’ — who have led the call to intensify research on geoengineering. Contrary to some of the more excitable commentary on their motives, I do not believe that they are secretly promoting a political vision of the future. But their idea of a ‘pragmatic’ response to the inadequacy of current environmental policies is still utopian in character. After all, is trying to recreate a ‘better climate’ really so different from the political movements that sought to manipulate societal structures to make a ‘better world’? Moreover, if we accept our own overconsumption as an inevitability, we might slide into acceptance of the morally questionable mantra for solving the climate problem: we don’t have to change ourselves, because we can change nature.

Can we take control of the winds, the rain and the sun, and model the climate to our liking?

There are of course many in the environmental movement — and beyond — who oppose the logic of this approach. The green movement has always had at least one foot in the spiritual fields of Romanticism, with its reverence for the sanctity of nature. Nevertheless, some environmentalists have begun to embrace the Enlightenment logic of geoengineering as a Devil’s bargain. To ‘neo-environmentalists’ such as Stewart Brand or Mark Lynas, both critics of the green movement who view rapid technological change as the only feasible way to prevent catastrophic global warming, the prospect of geoengineering is no longer anathema.

The more I reflect on what geoengineering is, and what it represents, the more it feels like the quest to control the climate is not really about climate change, or even about the climate at all. What it’s really about is the ancient, reciprocal loop between the idea of ‘nature’ and the question of where we — the humans — fit into it. Can we take control of the winds, the rain and the sun, and model the climate to our liking? For those who imagine that we can, geoengineering holds out the promise of an answer to climate change that sidesteps the inconvenience of societal reform. But for those who doubt our Earth-management credentials, geoengineering is worse than simply an ill-advised ‘quick fix’. It is the ultimate expression of a seemingly insatiable desire: to bend nature to the will of human nature, whatever the consequences.

Read more essays on ecology and environment and geo-engineering

Comments

  • JQK

    First, referencing the Heartland Institute and other conservative support for climate engineering (CE) is a red herring: conservatives have put little effort behind CE, whereas most push for CE research is coming from environmentally-oriented (but despondent) scientists. Second, a negligible portion of those calling for consideration of CE see it as a quick fix, as a way to avoid changing behavior, and as an alternative to emissions reductions. Instead, almost all serious CE thinkers consider it to be either a complement to emissions reductions and adaptation, and/or a backup plan in case those Plans A don't work or if climate change is much worse than expected. Third, implementation of CE may indeed have all sorts of negative consequences such as those you describe: political conflict, a changed human-nature relationship, etc. But these must be contrasted not with present-day reality, but with a possible future under climate change. Considering how serious such a future may be, we need all options on the table.

  • http://twitter.com/MikeHanlon1964 Michael Hanlon

    The premise of anthropogenic climate change is that geoengineering is not only possible but that it has happened, albeit inadvertently and with unfortunate consequences. We've already dicked about with the atmosphere so it may well be about time we started to think about un-dicking with it. 'Nature', and bending it to our will, is nothing to do with it. It's about the speed of change and the speed with which we can adapt to this change. If the former turns out to be greater than the latter then we are in trouble, and if we conclude that 'traditional' remedies (use less, eat less, burn less, drive less etc etc) aren't going to happen then we need Plan B. It would be insane to not even consider geoengineering in these circumstances.

    • Adam Corner

      thanks Michael - I'd challenge whether geoengineering can meaningfully be described as 'un-dicking' with the climate though - wouldn't that be removing or reducing anthropgenic influence, not swapping it for a different form?
      And I guess your point that we might 'conclude' that the traditional remedies dont work is one of the things I'm challenging here - when would we know that, who would decide, what does not working mean?

      • http://www.facebook.com/charles.duemler Charles Duemler

        Back in 1990 I studied global warming in detail. Back then it was shown that we needed to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions by 90%. We have utterly failed.

        You might state that we haven't even tried. When do you want to start? I stated 12 years ago that it'd be nice but it's not going to happen. I'm not against reducing carbon emissions, it's necessary to reduce ocean acid levels. It needs to be done ASAP.

        We now have methane coming out that could dwarf human emissions and have to contend with it. Reduction of sea ice is also a problem decreasing Earths albedo. Both need to be considered in addition to the ippc report.

        If the current weather patterns of ever increasing record heat/cold/droughts and floods going on continue death by starvation will increase. Proper food distribution could end starvation now possibly, but not if weather patterns continue. To those that die of starvation and to the species that go extinct the methods to control global warming will have failed.

        As someone with a unique SRM geoengineering solution I'd also like to state that I would implement my methods with or without the present "global warming" problem. Once every few hundred years on average we get hit with an asteroid or a volcano goes off large enough to disrupt agriculture for two or more years. It would be a good idea to prepare for this.

        Charles Duemler
        Projectcharles

  • http://www.facebook.com/max.mogren Max Mogren

    This article is very thought provoking and well written but I think it misses the mark on a few major points.

    1) Despite the entrenched scientific consensus on the impossibility of claiming with 100% certainty that particular weather/climate modification efforts succeeded, there is no doubt that humans have intentionally modified the weather successfully in the past. The US Military's past prolonged covert weather warfare efforts over Vietnam (Operation Popeye) and the existence of countless commercial and government cloud seeding operations globally at present remove any doubt that weather modification works. Climate modification technologies like SAG SRM are merely weather modification on a much grander and more complicated scale... which is where advanced computer forecasting and modelling enters the equation.

    2) The words "weapon" and "war" are noticeably absent from this article. A full discussion on geoengineering technologies must include the probable reality that climate modification would be weaponized by the current (corrupt) political/financial interests. The weather has been used as a weapon in the past. It would be naive to assume that climate modification would not be used similarly, especially given the existence of viewpoints like those explained the US Airforce's 1996 research paper "Weather as a Force Multiplier: Owning the Weather by 2025".

    3) Over the last 15 years a growing movement -- now including millions of researchers and activists around the globe -- has cataloged a mountain of evidence exposing the existence of covert weather/climate modification programs eerily similar to the currently proposed "stratospheric aerosol solar radiation management" geoengineering operations. If there is good evidence that climate modification has been conducted covertly for over a decade, Isn't it safe to assume that these technologies have already been weaponized?

    Save The Planet: Expose Geoengineering, Weather Warfare, and Covert Climate Changing Programshttp://www.oilfreefun.com/2012/12/save-planet-expose-geo-engineering.html

  • Brad Arnold

    Three things. First, "The alternative (to geoengineering) is the acceptance of a massive natural cull of humanity..." --Dr James Lovelock, Aug '08

    Second, we are already lowering the temperature around 1 degree C with our sun dimming pollution, and can easily lower it further very very cheaply with a balloon and a hose pumping more sun dimming aerosol into the upper atmosphere - if we don't like it we can stop and it will wash out in a couple of months.

    Finally, there is a clean, very very cheap, and super abundant energy technology emerging very soon that will virtually eliminate our fossil fuel emissions - because it is so much cheaper to switch, not because we are ordered to. Here is a primer:

    "A volume about the size of a #2 pencil eraser of water provides as much energy as two 48-gallon drums of gasoline. That is 355,000 times the amount of energy per volume – five orders of magnitude." ( http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/New-LENR-Machine-is-the-Best-Yet.html ).

    This phenomenon (LENR) has been confirmed in hundreds of published scientific papers: http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/RothwellJtallyofcol.pdf

    "Over 2 decades with over 100 experiments worldwide indicate LENR is real, much greater than chemical..." --Dennis M. Bushnell, Chief Scientist, NASA Langley Research Center

    "Total replacement of fossil fuels for everything but synthetic organic chemistry." --Dr. Joseph M. Zawodny, NASA

    By the way, here is a survey of some of the companies that are bringing LENR to commercialization: http://www.cleantechblog.com/2011/08/the-new-breed-of-energy-catalyzers-ready-for-commercialization.html

    For those who still aren't convinced, here is a paper I wrote that contains some pretty convincing evidence: http://coldfusionnow.org/the-evidence-for-lenr/

  • http://twitter.com/EcoHustler EcoHustler
  • Lenny Glynn

    However you slice it, the whole issue is geo-engineering, all the way down. If you agree with the consensus of most climate scientists, then we are already geo-engineering the atmosphere -- inadvertently. Proposals to wean the global economy off of fossil fuel are also, de facto, geo-engineering options -- i.e. more deliberate efforts to alter the geo-engineering we're already doing. If there are other, less wrenching, less expensive, more politically feasible ways to the same end, shouldn't we consider them?

  • http://twitter.com/russgeorge2 russ george

    We simply cannot afford engineers, their proposed solutions line their pockets and don't come close to being ready in time...ecologists, we can afford... http://russgeorge.net/2013/04/12/geoengineering-dreamers-david-keith/